SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild (2024)

slhNavy91
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Post: #61

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-21-2024 12:05 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:
(06-21-2024 11:53 AM)quo vadis Wrote: IMO the issue with a "PAC rebuild" isn't what schools would be at the top of the list, those are I thin fairly obvious to most of us.

The issue is whether the 2PAC will attempt a "rebuild" that attempts to poach just some MW schools rather than absorbing all of them in the face of poison pills the MW is using to defend itself.

And that presumes that the 2PAC won't be successful in their preferred goal, to convince an M2 league to take them.


The deal would be structured such that 40-65 million negotiated by Gloria would be the cost for the PAC 2 together to get MWC schools out. However, the 17 million dollar MWC buyout will probably not be covered by the PAC2, as there is no way they'd be remotely profitable footing 100% of the bill.

It depends on whether the any future settlement can negotiate down the 17 million (which historically speaking, has lots of precedent, and Gloria has admitted 17 is a place holder or a starting point for negotiations), and how much the departing schools are willing to cover on their own.

If the media deal is going to be 11-12 million a year, the PAC2 are foregoing perhaps 3 years of base revenue to build this higher revenue league. They come out ahead, as does everyone else who gets promoted.

The AAC exit fee is 10 million, which is the same number Gloria just negotiated per school. So the math is pretty much the same.

The AAC exit fee is $10 million...to start play in the 2027-28 season.
27 months notice is required to keep it at the base $10 million. EVERYONE who has left sooner than 27 months -- which is what the 2PAC need for continued existence -- has been in the $18 million range.
Spreading that out over, say, a six-year media contract, plus walking away from their share of SMU's exit fees, plus travel costs...breakeven point for a UTSA, Rice, or UNT at AAC half shares is $9 million per school per year.
For the legacy schools with full shares and also walking away from the Big12 quitters' exit fees (and possibly even a couple Huskie Bucks remaining to scoop out from the couch cushions), the breakeven point is $13 million plus

(This post was last modified: 06-21-2024 12:54 PM by slhNavy91.)

06-21-2024 12:32 PM
AztecEmpire SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild (5)
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Post: #62

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-21-2024 11:39 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:
(06-21-2024 11:19 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote: If its all sports its either regional or bi-regional (West&East).I still think that the only way this is possible is a basic formula of taking the top MW, top AAC, the 3 academies, and UCONN(FB only). If you approach it this way you start with 12 but they are really two groups of 6, 6 in the west, and 6 in the east. This leaves what to do about Texas. The options are limited but I think you avoid being 3rd or 4th class citizens in Dallas and Houston and focus on San Antonio. Add UTSA and TXST. Not sexy at all, but both programs would probably be happy to join. So the BOR becomes...

WSU/OSU
SDSU/BSU/CSU
TUL/MEM/USF
AFA/ARMY/NAVY
UCONN/UTSA/TXST

or by region...

WEST:WSU/OSU/SDSU/BSU/CSU/AFA
EAST: TUL/MEM/USF/ARMY/NAVY/UCONN
TEXAS: UTSA/TXST


That's how I would design it. The problem is that according to Canzano, OSU and WSU "prefer to stay lean and nimble" specifically because they don't want to split the media deal 14 ways.

It's beyond a long shot. I believe the arrangement I put together would have the most media value and it still seems clear that value would fall short of creating that movement. If anything we are all on the clock waiting for WSU/OSU to realize their situation and accept it.

06-21-2024 12:34 PM
UTEPDallas SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild (10)
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Post: #63

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-20-2024 07:25 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:
(06-20-2024 06:50 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:
(06-20-2024 05:21 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:
(06-20-2024 05:06 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:
(06-20-2024 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: No news here. This is something we all already knew.

I think the “news” is more Canzano backing off Fresno State as a candidate because he was a pretty clear personal supporter of them in the past. He must have heard some negative feedback. Seems like a classic realignment situation where the fans like a school (typically because they have a visibly better fan base and/or attendance) much more than the university presidents that are focused on off-the-field factors (e.g. market, location, academics, institutional profile, etc.).

While I admit that I'm not up to date on the ins and outs of the MWC, I figured that Fresno St would be closer to the top of that list. They had better attendance last year than Cal and Stanford both, and their 5 year rolling average is only a few thousand behind Cal and Stanford. They have a whole lot of students, a very large alumni base of 300k, and they're a California school that actually gives a crap about football. What am I missing here?

Whether it’s fair or not, I’d compare it to the lack of interest in UTEP from either the MWC or AAC over the years. It’s technically in Texas, but it’s not the part of Texas that leagues care about and the market is very industrial/agrarian/blue collar as opposed to a highly educated growth area. There are very similar dynamics with Fresno, albeit they’re not quite as geographically isolated. If Fresno State had UNLV’s location, they might have been knocking on the door of the Big 12.

Not as "geographically isolated"? El Paso is closer to Monterrey than it is to Houston, and it's only 60 miles closer to Houston than it is to LA. It's the literal definition of the middle of nowhere. Fresno is 149 miles to San Jose and only 219 miles to LA. Sure, it's not in the glitzy part of California, but it's conveniently located with in a couple hundred miles of 40 million people, and that's not counting Vegas and Arizona, which aren't all that far away, either.

Fresno is in a bad part of a very good region. They at least have hope. El Paso is in a different solar system (and in a bad part of that solar system, too).

Give me Fresno 100 times out of 100, at least geographically, over schools like Boise, WSU and OSU. For a west coast-focused Conference, Fresno is convenient to just about everyone. I wonder if Canzano isn't just a little bit biased against Fresno b/c he spent so much time covering Pac schools that used to look down their noses at them?

El Paso is more or less similar to Boise and Spokane. The reason why I use those two cities as an example is because I often read/hear UTEP fans complain about geography as an excuse of a mediocre product on the field and court. My response always is “explain Boise State football and Gonzaga basketball then”. Those two schools are nowhere near fertile recruiting areas but what made them what they are today is that they have invested in their programs (salaries). They’re in a worse position than UTEP geographically speaking. At least El Paso is in the middle of Southern California and the Texas Triangle with Phoenix not too far away. Their geographic location is both a curse and a blessing.

06-21-2024 12:37 PM
slhNavy91
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Post: #64

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-21-2024 11:19 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote: If its all sports its either regional or bi-regional (West&East).I still think that the only way this is possible is a basic formula of taking the top MW, top AAC, the 3 academies, and UCONN(FB only). If you approach it this way you start with 12 but they are really two groups of 6, 6 in the west, and 6 in the east. This leaves what to do about Texas. The options are limited but I think you avoid being 3rd or 4th class citizens in Dallas and Houston and focus on San Antonio. Add UTSA and TXST. Not sexy at all, but both programs would probably be happy to join. So the BOR becomes...

WSU/OSU
SDSU/BSU/CSU
TUL/MEM/USF
AFA/ARMY/NAVY
UCONN/UTSA/TXST

or by region...

WEST:WSU/OSU/SDSU/BSU/CSU/AFA
EAST: TUL/MEM/USF/ARMY/NAVY/UCONN
TEXAS: UTSA/TXST

A few thoughts on this hypothetical.

- Army and Navy would be football-only, but USAFA doesn't have a Patriot League solution so would be all-sports.
So for all-sports, whatever your Texas piece is ends up with the East in your travel minimization. That's probably fine

- Army and Navy won't play in-conference. You have seen the AAC adopt Rule #1 (thou shalt not mess with America's Game Army-Navy Football presented by USAA) back in 2012 when Navy signed on to the Big East, and this year.

- That's okay, you don't really WANT football divisions in order to optimize CCG and CFP chances. And travel is less impactful taking charters four times a year than for all-sports. Conference schedules just have them both play AF always and each other never.

- As mathed out in previous post, the AAC new additions need a media deal of $9 million to break even, and the legacies need $13+ million per school per year.
Do you really think that is worth $189 million per year? 1.5x the AAC and mwc combined? 2/3 the worth of the offer to the PAC10 with Oregon, Washington, the 4 Corners schools, and CalFord?

06-21-2024 12:53 PM
Tiger1983 SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild (18)
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Post: #65

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-21-2024 07:29 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:
(06-21-2024 07:24 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: A "Best of the Rest" conference would routinely secure money making bowls and the G-5 slot, multiple NCAA BB Tourney bids, and improve attendance.

The obstacles of travel cost, media deal, and exit fees cannot be discounted, but from a performance perspective a "Best of the Rest" conference is the best option for G-5's left in the cold. Clearly, Washington St and Oregon St have not given up on the ideation.


I would argue that it would hurt attendance for Memphis. Road conference games would basically be unwatchable for most Memphis fans due to the late start times. Honestly, it would be out of sight out of mind for most casual Tiger fans that we need to boost football and basketball attendance.

I think more appealing games will boast attendance.

06-21-2024 01:28 PM
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Post: #66

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-21-2024 08:05 AM)PlayBall! Wrote: Much cleaner, easier, and far cheaper to merge the whole MW into the Pac-12. Have an easy-out policy, with a reasonable notification period vs. exit fee, for anyone who gets a call-up.

Agree. The newly formed conference would be favored to win the CFP G-5 slot most years. However, something is holding them back because they have not pulled the trigger.

06-21-2024 01:41 PM
AztecEmpire SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild (34)
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Post: #67

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-21-2024 12:53 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:
(06-21-2024 11:19 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote: If its all sports its either regional or bi-regional (West&East).I still think that the only way this is possible is a basic formula of taking the top MW, top AAC, the 3 academies, and UCONN(FB only). If you approach it this way you start with 12 but they are really two groups of 6, 6 in the west, and 6 in the east. This leaves what to do about Texas. The options are limited but I think you avoid being 3rd or 4th class citizens in Dallas and Houston and focus on San Antonio. Add UTSA and TXST. Not sexy at all, but both programs would probably be happy to join. So the BOR becomes...

WSU/OSU
SDSU/BSU/CSU
TUL/MEM/USF
AFA/ARMY/NAVY
UCONN/UTSA/TXST

or by region...

WEST:WSU/OSU/SDSU/BSU/CSU/AFA
EAST: TUL/MEM/USF/ARMY/NAVY/UCONN
TEXAS: UTSA/TXST


A few thoughts on this hypothetical.

- Army and Navy would be football-only, but USAFA doesn't have a Patriot League solution so would be all-sports.
So for all-sports, whatever your Texas piece is ends up with the East in your travel minimization. That's probably fine

- Army and Navy won't play in-conference. You have seen the AAC adopt Rule #1 (thou shalt not mess with America's Game Army-Navy Football presented by USAA) back in 2012 when Navy signed on to the Big East, and this year.

- That's okay, you don't really WANT football divisions in order to optimize CCG and CFP chances. And travel is less impactful taking charters four times a year than for all-sports. Conference schedules just have them both play AF always and each other never.

- As mathed out in previous post, the AAC new additions need a media deal of $9 million to break even, and the legacies need $13+ million per school per year.
Do you really think that is worth $189 million per year? 1.5x the AAC and mwc combined? 2/3 the worth of the offer to the PAC10 with Oregon, Washington, the 4 Corners schools, and CalFord?

Hard to imagine a number north of $175m/yr for those 14. It would be enticing but not enough to make it happen.

06-21-2024 02:14 PM
PlayBall! SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild (39)
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Post: #68

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-21-2024 01:41 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:
(06-21-2024 08:05 AM)PlayBall! Wrote: Much cleaner, easier, and far cheaper to merge the whole MW into the Pac-12. Have an easy-out policy, with a reasonable notification period vs. exit fee, for anyone who gets a call-up.

Agree. The newly formed conference would be favored to win the CFP G-5 slot most years. However, something is holding them back because they have not pulled the trigger.

OSU and WSU are milking the remaining finances/benefits of the old Pac-12. Two years to go.

06-21-2024 02:23 PM
slhNavy91
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Post: #69

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-21-2024 02:14 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:
(06-21-2024 12:53 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:
(06-21-2024 11:19 AM)AztecEmpire Wrote: If its all sports its either regional or bi-regional (West&East).I still think that the only way this is possible is a basic formula of taking the top MW, top AAC, the 3 academies, and UCONN(FB only). If you approach it this way you start with 12 but they are really two groups of 6, 6 in the west, and 6 in the east. This leaves what to do about Texas. The options are limited but I think you avoid being 3rd or 4th class citizens in Dallas and Houston and focus on San Antonio. Add UTSA and TXST. Not sexy at all, but both programs would probably be happy to join. So the BOR becomes...

WSU/OSU
SDSU/BSU/CSU
TUL/MEM/USF
AFA/ARMY/NAVY
UCONN/UTSA/TXST

or by region...

WEST:WSU/OSU/SDSU/BSU/CSU/AFA
EAST: TUL/MEM/USF/ARMY/NAVY/UCONN
TEXAS: UTSA/TXST


A few thoughts on this hypothetical.

- Army and Navy would be football-only, but USAFA doesn't have a Patriot League solution so would be all-sports.
So for all-sports, whatever your Texas piece is ends up with the East in your travel minimization. That's probably fine

- Army and Navy won't play in-conference. You have seen the AAC adopt Rule #1 (thou shalt not mess with America's Game Army-Navy Football presented by USAA) back in 2012 when Navy signed on to the Big East, and this year.

- That's okay, you don't really WANT football divisions in order to optimize CCG and CFP chances. And travel is less impactful taking charters four times a year than for all-sports. Conference schedules just have them both play AF always and each other never.

- As mathed out in previous post, the AAC new additions need a media deal of $9 million to break even, and the legacies need $13+ million per school per year.
Do you really think that is worth $189 million per year? 1.5x the AAC and mwc combined? 2/3 the worth of the offer to the PAC10 with Oregon, Washington, the 4 Corners schools, and CalFord?


Hard to imagine a number north of $175m/yr for those 14. It would be enticing but not enough to make it happen.

$135 million is a GENEROUS estimate for that grouping of 14

06-21-2024 02:26 PM
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Post: #70

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild

Air Force's other sports would fit in the Summit League perfectly.

06-21-2024 02:39 PM
Eichorst SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild (53)
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Post: #71

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild

One thing folks ignore here is: does anyone in the AAC even want to be associated with OSU/WSU? Without P5 TV money they're just slightly above average programs with bad markets and terrible locations/access. I don't see how it benefits Memphis to be associated with Wazzu.

06-21-2024 02:45 PM
aTxTIGER SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild (57)
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Post: #72

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-21-2024 02:45 PM)Eichorst Wrote: One thing folks ignore here is: does anyone in the AAC even want to be associated with OSU/WSU? Without P5 TV money they're just slightly above average programs with bad markets and terrible locations/access. I don't see how it benefits Memphis to be associated with Wazzu.

They are fine institutions and I am very sorry for what has happened to them over the last year or so. However, as a Memphis fan it's kinda a meh about playing them. A home and home OOC with Wazzu in basketball might be fun but that's about it. We have nothing in common with either of those schools besides the fact that no one else wants us.

06-21-2024 03:17 PM
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Post: #73

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild

Thats why this is all so unrealistic.

Money would be the only reason for the AAC schools to leave...and not just a minor bump, a bump significant enough to justify going out west on a regular basis.

I just don't see who is going to finance all this when the option of Oregon St and Washington St joining the MWC is the most logical and benefits all other parties other than WSU and OSU

06-21-2024 03:30 PM
GoBuckeyes1047 SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild (68)
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Post: #74

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild

Something to consider. The MWC formed because when a group of schools wanted to breakaway from newer or lesser members. It wouldn't shock me if history repeated itself and we see 6 MWC schools join OSU and WSU in the PAC while the MWC adds UTEP and NMSU to jump back to 8 as a starting point. Obviously this isn't apples to apples compared to 1999, but I could see the top MWC universities choosing to breakaway if it makes financial sense. Also, with 7 conference games, if both leagues choose to stay at 8 teams, it leaves space for teams to play rivals split by the league if they chose to.

06-21-2024 03:44 PM
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Post: #75

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-21-2024 03:44 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote: Something to consider. The MWC formed because when a group of schools wanted to breakaway from newer or lesser members. It wouldn't shock me if history repeated itself and we see 6 MWC schools join OSU and WSU in the PAC while the MWC adds UTEP and NMSU to jump back to 8 as a starting point. Obviously this isn't apples to apples compared to 1999, but I could see the top MWC universities choosing to breakaway if it makes financial sense. Also, with 7 conference games, if both leagues choose to stay at 8 teams, it leaves space for teams to play rivals split by the league if they chose to.

I don't think that is in the best interest of the G5, creating a 2nd G5 conference again.

WSU/OSU + MWC I think has more leverage on bowls out west since it will probably be the 5th best FBS conference and the B1G/B1G/ACC can't guarantee too many placements.

2PAC+MWC could make a run at the Holiday Bowl for example.

06-21-2024 04:32 PM
BePcr07 SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild (77)
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Post: #76

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild

Practical option: OSU/WSU eventually reverse merge with the entire MWC.

If I were OSU/WSU and wanted to rebuild the PAC from non-power schools:
- IND: Connecticut
- AAC: Army*, Memphis, East Carolina, Navy*, North Texas, South Florida, Temple, Tulane, UTSA, Wichita St^
- MWC: Air Force, Boise St, Colorado St, Fresno St, San Diego St, UNLV
- WCC: Gonzaga^

That's a solid 18. Far too big to be worth a national conference <at that level> but I think its a fun idea. If divisions, the acronym PAC means (Pacific, Atlantic, Central).

PAC
Pacific: Boise St, Fresno St, Oregon St, San Diego St, UNLV, Washington St
Atlantic: Army*, Connecticut, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Temple
Central: Air Force, Colorado St, Navy*, North Texas, Tulane, UTSA
* Football-Only
^ Non-Football: Gonzaga, Wichita St

(This post was last modified: 06-21-2024 04:36 PM by BePcr07.)

06-21-2024 04:35 PM
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Post: #77

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-21-2024 03:44 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote: Something to consider. The MWC formed because when a group of schools wanted to breakaway from newer or lesser members. It wouldn't shock me if history repeated itself and we see 6 MWC schools join OSU and WSU in the PAC while the MWC adds UTEP and NMSU to jump back to 8 as a starting point. Obviously this isn't apples to apples compared to 1999, but I could see the top MWC universities choosing to breakaway if it makes financial sense. Also, with 7 conference games, if both leagues choose to stay at 8 teams, it leaves space for teams to play rivals split by the league if they chose to.

New Mexico will never allow New Mexico State to join the MWC.

06-21-2024 04:36 PM
Big12HoopsHeaven SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild (85)
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Post: #78

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-21-2024 04:36 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:
(06-21-2024 03:44 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote: Something to consider. The MWC formed because when a group of schools wanted to breakaway from newer or lesser members. It wouldn't shock me if history repeated itself and we see 6 MWC schools join OSU and WSU in the PAC while the MWC adds UTEP and NMSU to jump back to 8 as a starting point. Obviously this isn't apples to apples compared to 1999, but I could see the top MWC universities choosing to breakaway if it makes financial sense. Also, with 7 conference games, if both leagues choose to stay at 8 teams, it leaves space for teams to play rivals split by the league if they chose to.

New Mexico will never allow New Mexico State to join the MWC.

The new CUSA is better than the skeleton MWC would be by that point.

06-21-2024 05:27 PM
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Post: #79

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-21-2024 05:27 PM)Big12HoopsHeaven Wrote:
(06-21-2024 04:36 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:
(06-21-2024 03:44 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote: Something to consider. The MWC formed because when a group of schools wanted to breakaway from newer or lesser members. It wouldn't shock me if history repeated itself and we see 6 MWC schools join OSU and WSU in the PAC while the MWC adds UTEP and NMSU to jump back to 8 as a starting point. Obviously this isn't apples to apples compared to 1999, but I could see the top MWC universities choosing to breakaway if it makes financial sense. Also, with 7 conference games, if both leagues choose to stay at 8 teams, it leaves space for teams to play rivals split by the league if they chose to.

New Mexico will never allow New Mexico State to join the MWC.

The new CUSA is better than the skeleton MWC would be by that point.

MWC has never pulled in members from the Big Sky before either.

Its a possible whomever is left over in the MWC reaches out to CUSA.

Stability in numbers.

06-21-2024 05:37 PM
billings SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild (95)
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SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild (96)

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Post: #80

RE: Canzano: SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild
(06-21-2024 02:23 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:
(06-21-2024 01:41 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:
(06-21-2024 08:05 AM)PlayBall! Wrote: Much cleaner, easier, and far cheaper to merge the whole MW into the Pac-12. Have an easy-out policy, with a reasonable notification period vs. exit fee, for anyone who gets a call-up.

Agree. The newly formed conference would be favored to win the CFP G-5 slot most years. However, something is holding them back because they have not pulled the trigger.

OSU and WSU are milking the remaining finances/benefits of the old Pac-12. Two years to go.

They are spending it rather quickly. There will be almost $90 million of it gone by the end of next year. After two years there is no "war chest" left to pay for anything

06-21-2024 06:04 PM
SDSU, BSU, CSU and AFA top list of schools for potential Pac-12 rebuild (2024)
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